Hong Kong Politics & Protest

Pan-dems to win 1 seat in N.T. East, lawmaker Regina Ip to win big, poll predicts

Pan-democrats may only win one seat in the New Territories East constituency, according to the latest results from the rolling poll of the University of Hong Kong Public Opinion Programme (HKUPOP). New Territories East is one of the most contested districts in the September 4 Legislative Council elections this year.

Meanwhile, the New People’s Party, headed by Executive Councillor and Legislative Council candidate Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee, is predicted to win two seats each in the Hong Kong and New Territories West districts.

alvin yeung

Alvin Yeung. Photo: Alvin Yeung, via Facebook.

Five pan-democrats lists are running for seats in the area. In total, 22 candidates’ lists are competing for 9 seats in the constituency. The pro-democracy Civic Party’s Alvin Yeung Ngok-kiu is leading the polls with a 12 per cent support rate, while the pro-establishment DAB party’s Elizabeth Quat comes second at seven per cent. The other pan-democrat candidates – the Neo Democrats’ Gary Fan Kwok-wai, the Labour Party’s Fernando Cheung Chiu-hung and the League of Social Democrats’ Leung Kwok-hung – have three per cent support, while People Power’s Raymond Chan Chi-chuen has one per cent.

Some candidate lists, however, are predicted to win two seats in the elections. Results for the Hong Kong Island district show that the pro-establishment New People’s Party is poised to win two seats in the area. The list is headed by Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee and has a support rate of 21 per cent. Judy Chan Ka-pui, who is second on the list, will take the other seat. The Civic Party’s list headed by Tanya Chan comes in second overall in the district with a support rate of ten per cent.

legislative council

File photo: HKFP.

Michael Tien Puk-sun, also of the New People’s Party, is poised to win two seats in the New Territories West district, leading at 12 per cent. DAB’s Ben Chan Han-pan comes in second with a support rate of 5 per cent.

The pan-democrats are predicted to win 11 seats in the polls, while the pro-establishment side is expected to win 17 seats. There are 35 seats up for election in total; the full list of candidates running across districts and constituencies can be viewed here.

Methodological controversy

The rolling poll met with criticism after HKUPOP changed its polling methods to accommodate an increase in candidates by reading out only the first names on each list during polling. However, in a statement, HKUPOP said that in a trial conducted during the polls from August 11 to 15, where results of reading one name or two names were compared, it found “at 95% confidence level there is no significant difference between the two sets of figures.”

HKUPOP interviewed 1,027 people over the telephone during the period. 469 of those surveyed were selected to take part in the name-reading trial.

2016 legco legislative elections candidates leaflets advertising

Photo: HKFP.

The program decided it would revert to reading two names from candidate lists during polling starting on Monday.

Correction: This article previously stated that the HKUPOP program had not yet decided whether it would revert to reading two names during polling. In fact, it announced it would do so on Monday. 

Pan-dems to win 1 seat in N.T. East, lawmaker Regina Ip to win big, poll predicts