A preliminary survey published by the pro-establishment Hong Kong Research Association on Thursday predicted pan-democrats and localists to get 19 seats in the geographical direct elections of the Legislative Council. Elections for the legislature will take place in September.
The association randomly interviewed 5,011 people from July 14 to July 29 over the phone. The results include Edward Leung, who garnered more than 66,000 votes in the February by-election and looked likely to get a seat in this election prior to being barred from running this week.
The survey found that the following lists are likely to win seats in their districts, starting from those likely to receive the highest percentage of votes:
- Hong Kong Island: New People’s Party’s Regina Ip, Civic Party’s Tanya Chan and Ricky Wong, Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB)’s Horace Cheung, Labour Party’s Cyd Ho, Democratic Party’s Ted Hui Chi-fung
- Kowloon East: Democratic Party’s Wu Chi-wai, DAB’s Wilson Or and Civic Party’s Jeremy Tam, Federation of Trade Unions’ Wong Kwok-kin and Paul Tse
- Kowloon West: Civic Party’s Claudia Mo, DAB’s Ann Chiang, Proletariat Political Institute’s Raymond Wong, Democratic Party’s Helena Wong Pik-wan, Business and Professionals Alliance for Hong Kong’s Priscilla Leung, and Youngspiration’s Yau Wai-ching
- New Territories East: Civic Party’s Alvin Yeung, Liberal Party’s Dominic Lee, Hong Kong Indigenous’ Edward Leung Tin-kei (disqualified), DAB’s Elizabeth Quat, DAB’s Gary Chan, Neo Democrats’ Gary Fan, independent Christine Fong, Labour Party’s Fernando Cheung, and League of Social Democrats’ Leung Kwok-hung
- New Territories West: New People’s Party Michael Tien Puk-sun, Civic Party’s Kwok Ka-ki, Labour Party’s Lee Cheuk-yan, DAB’s Ben Chan, Federation of Trade Unions’ Alice Mak, DAB’s Leung Che-cheung, League of Social Democrats’ Raphael Wong, Association for Democracy and People’s Livelihood’s Frederick Fung, and Democratic Party’s Andrew Wan
- District Council (second) functional constituency: Democratic Party’s James To, DAB’s Starry Lee, Neighbourhood and Worker’s Service Centre’s Leung Yiu-chung, Federation of Trade Unions’ Wong Kwok-hing, and DAB’s Holden Chow.
Last few seats uncertain
The study said that the competition is fierce and “there will be a chaotic fight [to get] the last two or three seats in each district. This Legislative Council election will be the one with the most parties and the most candidate lists, and be most competitive election in history.”
Despite the predictions, however, there is a significant portion of the population who are still undecided. In the Hong Kong Island district, 27.6 per cent of those surveyed were undecided or had no opinion. These figures were 29.5, 26.2, 22.3, 12.4, and 26.3 per cent, respectively, for the Kowloon East, Kowloon West, New Territories East, New Territories West, and the District Council (second) functional constituency.
Apart from New Territories West, the percentage of those in each constituency who were undecided or had no opinion were significantly higher than the percentage who supported the top candidate in the area.
The full list of candidates can be viewed here.
The study also said that 27 per cent of voters were most concerned about politics and governance, while 22 per cent cared most about land and housing. 14 per cent were most concerned about economic development, while the remaining favoured medical services, education, labour, and environmental protection and sustainability.
When deciding who to vote for, 30 per cent said they were most concerned about past performance, 18 per cent chose political beliefs, 17 per cent chose political stance, and another 17 per cent chose platform. 7 per cent said that they cared about the image of the politician.
74 per cent of those surveyed said that they definitely would or would most likely vote. Only 5 per cent said that they were unlikely to or would not vote.
There will be a rolling survey by the University of Hong Kong Public Opinion Programme throughout the campaign period in cooperation with media outlets.